Prediction technologies on the FuturUS platform — prediction markets in action

FuturUS is a collective forecasting prediction markets platform that allows you to collect information from all participants of the system and transform it into probabilistic indicators.

The object for prediction can be:

Unlike traditional technologies that rely on statistics, the collective (social) forecasting relies on participants' predictions, and the system processes and interprets them as specific probabilities. Participants can be both in-house staff and a wider range, such as specialists in a particular field. This allows us to get a completely new approach, when the key aspect is not the analysis of past data, but the aggregation of current information that people have. After all, they see the situation from the inside and are able to respond quickly to changes.

FuturUS can:

1. Use all available information, including hidden information.
2. Collect the forecast opinions and vision of employees of different functional "layers" of the company.
3. Provide continuous monitoring of the situation, once something changes, participants immediately change their opinions, which is reflected in the aggregated forecast much faster than statistical systems.

The cost of collecting such information is minimal, since the participants already have it, only an effective tool is needed to receive and process it.

FuturUS can be used not only as a replacement, but also as an addition to the traditional analytical tools of the company.

Forecasting technologies

The system is based on crowdsourcing, i.e. prediction markets technology.

Forecasting technology based on prediction markets appeared in research centers in 1989 as a scientific method of forecasting elections, and since then has repeatedly justified itself, ahead of both statistical forecasts and expert estimates. In the 2000s, when corporate risks increased and the market situation began to change much more often, this approach was adopted by business. Industry leaders such as Intel, Google, IBM, France Telecom, etc. were the first to try them out and built the new tool into the company's analytics. The instrument itself has changed as well; new algorithms have made it simple and adapted for a wide range of participants. At the same time, the effectiveness of forecasts has increased.

From a user perspective, the FuturUS platform is similar to a real exchange such as NYSE. However, the product in this exchange is not a real asset, but predicted events and indicators. The participants invest their virtual capital in forecasts, varying rates, and the system on the basis of this recalculates the probability of their occurrence.

Unlike sociological research, the system through the virtual currency tool motivates participants to be responsible for their own forecasts and spend their "capital" only on those forecasts where they have information.

FuturUS is resistant to manipulation and sabotage due to anonymity and operational self-learning: even when there are participants who do not follow the situation and make bets at random, they quickly lose their "capital" and their influence is minimized. At the same time, the system allows you to identify the internal analysts of the company, which increase the amount of virtual currency and have the opportunity to have a greater impact on forecasts.

Experience

Our experience of application the system has shown not only its high predictive capabilities, but also its principal applicability for assessing the relevant competencies of personnel and creating additional motivation in the company, familiarizing with its purposes and objectives.

The platform is hosted on the Internet and is available 24/7.

The system can be effectively applied by business in the field of:

1. Banking and financial services.
2. Insurance.
3. Production.
4. Retail network.
5. Media and communications.
6. Management consulting and education.
7. Business operating in high-risk and highly competitive market segments.

Key Benefits of Prediction Markets

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